Nkhani Zamakampani: Kugulitsa zida zama chip padziko lonse lapansi kwafika pamlingo wapamwamba kwambiri!

SEMI ikunena kuti chomwe chimapangitsa kuti kugulitsa zida zama chip kupitirire kukula chimachokera ku ndalama zomwe zagwiritsidwa ntchito muukadaulo wapamwamba wa logic, kukumbukira, ndi ukadaulo wapamwamba wokhudzana ndi luntha lochita kupanga.

Mkulu wa SEMI Ajit Manocha anati, "Malonda apadziko lonse a zida zama chip ndi amphamvu, ndipo njira zonse ziwiri zoyambira ndi kumbuyo zikuyembekezeka kukula chaka chachitatu motsatizana, ndipo malonda akuyembekezeka kupitirira $150 biliyoni koyamba mu 2027. Pambuyo pa zomwe tidaneneratu pakati pa chaka zomwe zidatulutsidwa mu Julayi, takweza zomwe tidaneneratu za malonda a zida zama chip chifukwa cha ndalama zambiri kuposa momwe tinkayembekezera pothandizira kufunikira kwa AI."

SEMI ikukonzekera kugulitsa zida zopangira zinthu padziko lonse lapansi (zida zopangira zinthu za wafer; WFE) kuti zikule ndi 11.0% chaka ndi chaka kufika pa $115.7 biliyoni mu 2025, kuchokera pa zomwe zinanenedweratu pakati pa chaka za $110.8 biliyoni ndikupitirira zomwe zinanenedweratu mu 2024 za $104 biliyoni, zomwe zikuyika mbiri yatsopano. Kukonzanso kwa zomwe zinanenedweratu za malonda a WFE kukuwonetsa makamaka kuwonjezeka kosayembekezereka kwa ndalama za DRAM ndi HBM zomwe zimayendetsedwa ndi kufunikira kwa makompyuta a AI, komanso zopereka zazikulu kuchokera kukukula kwa mphamvu ku China. Chifukwa cha kufunikira kwakukulu kwa logic ndi kukumbukira, malonda apadziko lonse a WFE akuyembekezeka kukula ndi 9.0% mu 2026 ndikuwonjezekanso ndi 7.3% mu 2027, kufika pa $135.2 biliyoni.

SEMI ikusonyeza kuti China, Taiwan, ndi South Korea akuyembekezeka kukhalabe m'gulu la ogula zida zitatu zapamwamba za chip pofika chaka cha 2027. Munthawi yomwe ikuyembekezeredwa (mpaka 2027), China ikuyembekezeka kupitiliza kuyika ndalama mu njira zokhwima komanso malo enaake apamwamba kuti ipitirire patsogolo; komabe, kukula kukuyembekezeka kuchepa pambuyo pa 2026, ndipo malonda akuchepa pang'onopang'ono. Ku Taiwan, ndalama zambiri pakukulitsa mphamvu zopangira zamakono zikuyembekezeka kupitilira mpaka 2025. Ku South Korea, ndalama zambiri muukadaulo wapamwamba wokumbukira, kuphatikiza HBM, zithandizira kugulitsa zida.

M'madera ena, ndalama zikuyembekezeka kuwonjezeka mu 2026 ndi 2027 chifukwa cha zolimbikitsa za boma, khama lokhazikitsa malo okhala, komanso kuchuluka kwa mphamvu zopangira zinthu zapadera.

Bungwe la Japan Electronics and Information Technology Industries Association (JEITA) linatulutsa lipoti pa Disembala 2 ponena kuti, malinga ndi zomwe zanenedwa posachedwapa kuchokera ku World Semiconductor Trade System (WSTS), ndalama zomwe zagwiritsidwa ntchito m'malo opangira deta yaukadaulo ndizo zidzayambitsa kukula kwachangu kwa kufunika kwa kukumbukira, ma GPU, ndi ma logic chips ena. Chifukwa chake, malonda apadziko lonse lapansi a semiconductor akuyembekezeka kuwonjezeka ndi 26.3% pachaka kufika pa $975.46 biliyoni pofika chaka cha 2026, kufika pa $1 thililiyoni ndikuwonetsa mbiri yatsopano yokwera chaka chachitatu motsatizana.

 

Kugulitsa zida za semiconductor ku Japan kukupitilira kufika pamlingo wapamwamba kwambiri.

Kugulitsa zida zopangira semiconductor ku Japan kukupitirirabe, ndipo malonda a Okutobala 2025 apitilira 400 biliyoni yen kwa mwezi wa 12 motsatizana, ndikukhazikitsa mbiri yatsopano ya nthawi yomweyi. Chifukwa cha izi, magawo a makampani opanga zida zama chip aku Japan akwera lero.

Malinga ndi Yahoo Finance, pofika 9:20 am nthawi ya Taipei pa 27, magawo a Tokyo Electron (TEL) adakwera ndi 2.60%, magawo a Advantest (opanga zida zoyesera) adakwera ndi 4.34%, ndipo magawo a Kokosai (opanga zida zochepetsera filimu) adakwera ndi 5.16%.

Deta yomwe idatulutsidwa ndi Semiconductor Equipment Association of Japan (SEAJ) pa 26 idawonetsa kuti kugulitsa zida za semiconductor ku Japan (kuphatikizapo kutumiza kunja, avareji yosuntha ya miyezi itatu) kudafika pa 413.876 biliyoni yen mu Okutobala 2025, kuwonjezeka kwa 7.3% poyerekeza ndi nthawi yomweyi chaka chatha, zomwe zikuwonetsa kukula kwa mwezi wa 22 motsatizana. Kugulitsa pamwezi kwadutsa 300 biliyoni yen kwa miyezi 24 motsatizana ndi 400 biliyoni yen kwa miyezi 12 motsatizana, zomwe zikuyika mbiri yatsopano ya mwezi umenewo.

Malonda adatsika ndi 2.5% poyerekeza ndi mwezi wapitawo (Seputembala 2025), zomwe zidapangitsa kuti pakhale kutsika kwachiwiri m'miyezi itatu.

 

Kuyambira Januwale mpaka Okutobala 2025, kugulitsa zida zamagetsi zamagetsi ku Japan kunafika pa 4.214 trillion yen, kuwonjezeka kwa 17.5% poyerekeza ndi nthawi yomweyi chaka chatha, kupitirira kwambiri mbiri yakale ya 3.586 trillion yen yomwe idakhazikitsidwa mu 2024.

Gawo la msika wa Japan padziko lonse lapansi la zida zamagetsi zamagetsi (potengera ndalama zomwe amapeza) lafika pa 30%, zomwe zimapangitsa kuti likhale msika wachiwiri waukulu padziko lonse lapansi pambuyo pa United States.

Pa Okutobala 31, Tokyo Telecom (TEL) idalengeza zotsatira zake zachuma, ponena kuti chifukwa cha magwiridwe antchito abwino kuposa momwe amayembekezera, kampaniyo yakweza cholinga chake chopeza ndalama zonse chaka cha 2025 (Epulo 2025 mpaka Marichi 2026) kuchokera pa ¥2.35 thililiyoni mu Julayi kufika pa ¥2.38 thililiyoni. Cholinga chopeza phindu chophatikizana chakwezedwanso kuchoka pa ¥570 biliyoni kufika pa ¥586 biliyoni, ndipo cholinga chopeza phindu chophatikizana kuchokera pa ¥444 biliyoni kufika pa ¥488 biliyoni.

Pa Julayi 3, SEAJ idatulutsa lipoti lolosera lomwe likuwonetsa kuti chifukwa cha kufunikira kwakukulu kwa ma GPU ndi ma HBM kuchokera ku ma seva a AI, kampani yotsogola yopanga ma semiconductor ku Taiwan TSMC iyamba kupanga ma chips ambiri a 2nm, zomwe zikuwonjezera ndalama muukadaulo wa 2nm. Kuphatikiza apo, ndalama zomwe South Korea imagwiritsa ntchito ku DRAM/HBM zikukulanso. Chifukwa chake, kulosera kwa kugulitsa zida za semiconductor ku Japan (ponena za malonda a makampani aku Japan mdziko muno komanso padziko lonse lapansi) mchaka chachuma cha 2025 (Epulo 2025 mpaka Marichi 2026) kwasinthidwa kuchokera ku chiyerekezo chakale cha 4.659 trillion yen kufika pa 4.8634 trillion yen, kuwonjezeka kwa 2.0% poyerekeza ndi chaka chachuma cha 2024, ndipo akuyembekezeka kufika pamlingo wapamwamba kwambiri chaka chachiwiri motsatizana.