Kufunika ndi kutulutsa kwa mitundu yosiyanasiyana ya ma phukusi apamwamba m'misika yosiyanasiyana kukukweza kukula kwa msika wake kuchoka pa $38 biliyoni kufika pa $79 biliyoni pofika chaka cha 2030. Kukula kumeneku kumalimbikitsidwa ndi zofuna ndi zovuta zosiyanasiyana, komabe kumapitilizabe kukwera. Kusinthasintha kumeneku kumalola ma phukusi apamwamba kuti apitirire kupanga zatsopano komanso kusintha, kukwaniritsa zosowa zenizeni za misika yosiyanasiyana pankhani ya zotuluka, zofunikira zaukadaulo, ndi mitengo yapakati yogulitsa.
Komabe, kusinthasintha kumeneku kumabweretsanso zoopsa ku makampani opanga ma CD apamwamba pamene misika ina ikukumana ndi mavuto kapena kusinthasintha. Mu 2024, ma CD apamwamba amapindula ndi kukula kwachangu kwa msika wa malo osungira deta, pomwe kubwerera kwa misika yayikulu monga mafoni kumachedwa.
Unyolo wopereka ma CD wapamwamba ndi umodzi mwa magawo ang'onoang'ono omwe ali ndi mphamvu kwambiri mu unyolo wopereka ma semiconductor padziko lonse lapansi. Izi zimachitika chifukwa cha kutenga nawo mbali kwa mitundu yosiyanasiyana ya mabizinesi kupatula OSAT (Outsourced Semiconductor Assembly and Test), kufunika kwa makampaniwa pankhani ya ndale, komanso udindo wake wofunikira pazinthu zogwira ntchito bwino.
Chaka chilichonse chimabweretsa zopinga zake zomwe zimakonzanso mawonekedwe a unyolo wapamwamba woperekera ma CD. Mu 2024, zinthu zingapo zazikulu zimakhudza kusinthaku: kuchepa kwa mphamvu, zovuta zokolola, zipangizo ndi zida zatsopano, zofunikira pakugwiritsa ntchito ndalama, malamulo ndi njira zandale, kufunikira kwakukulu m'misika inayake, miyezo yosinthika, atsopano omwe akuyamba kumene, komanso kusinthasintha kwa zinthu zopangira.
Mapangano atsopano ambiri abuka kuti athetse mavuto okhudzana ndi unyolo wogulitsa zinthu mogwirizana komanso mwachangu. Ukadaulo wapamwamba kwambiri wopaka zinthu ukuperekedwa kwa ena kuti athandizire kusintha kosavuta kupita ku mitundu yatsopano yamabizinesi ndikuthana ndi zopinga zamphamvu. Kukhazikitsa ma chip standard kukulimbikitsidwa kwambiri kuti kulimbikitse kugwiritsa ntchito ma chip ambiri, kufufuza misika yatsopano, ndikuchepetsa mavuto a ndalama za munthu aliyense. Mu 2024, mayiko atsopano, makampani, malo, ndi mizere yoyesera akuyamba kudzipereka ku mapaketi apamwamba - zomwe zidzapitirira mpaka mu 2025.
Ma CD apamwamba sanafike pamlingo waukadaulo. Pakati pa 2024 ndi 2025, ma CD apamwamba afika pamlingo wapamwamba kwambiri, ndipo ukadaulo ukukulirakulira mpaka kuphatikiza mitundu yatsopano yaukadaulo ndi nsanja za AP zomwe zilipo, monga EMIB ndi Foveros za m'badwo waposachedwa wa Intel. Ma CD a CPO (Chip-on-Package Optical Devices) akukopa chidwi cha makampani, ndipo ukadaulo watsopano ukupangidwa kuti ukope makasitomala ndikukulitsa zomwe amapanga.
Ma substrates ophatikizana apamwamba akuyimira makampani ena ogwirizana kwambiri, kugawana mapu a njira, mfundo zogwirira ntchito limodzi, ndi zofunikira pazida ndi ma phukusi apamwamba.
Kuwonjezera pa ukadaulo wofunikira uwu, ukadaulo wambiri "wosaoneka" ukuyendetsa kusiyanasiyana ndi kupanga zinthu zatsopano: njira zoperekera mphamvu, ukadaulo wophatikiza, kasamalidwe ka kutentha, zipangizo zatsopano (monga magalasi ndi zinthu zachilengedwe za m'badwo wotsatira), zolumikizira zapamwamba, ndi zida zatsopano/mawonekedwe a zida. Kuyambira pa mafoni ndi zamagetsi mpaka ku luntha lochita kupanga ndi malo osungira deta, kulongedza kwapamwamba kukusintha ukadaulo wake kuti ukwaniritse zosowa za msika uliwonse, zomwe zimathandiza kuti zinthu zake za m'badwo wotsatira zikwaniritsenso zosowa za msika.
Msika wa ma CD apamwamba ukuyembekezeka kufika pa $8 biliyoni mu 2024, ndipo ziyembekezo zidzapitirira $28 biliyoni pofika chaka cha 2030, zomwe zikuwonetsa kuchuluka kwa kukula kwa pachaka (CAGR) kwa 23% kuyambira 2024 mpaka 2030. Ponena za misika yomaliza, msika waukulu kwambiri wa ma CD apamwamba ndi "ma telecommunications and infrastructure," womwe udapanga ndalama zoposa 67% mu 2024. Pambuyo pake pali "msika wa mafoni ndi ogula," womwe ndi msika womwe ukukula mwachangu kwambiri wokhala ndi CAGR ya 50%.
Ponena za mayunitsi opaka, ma phukusi apamwamba akuyembekezeka kuwona CAGR ya 33% kuyambira 2024 mpaka 2030, kuwonjezeka kuchokera pa mayunitsi pafupifupi 1 biliyoni mu 2024 kufika pa mayunitsi opitilira 5 biliyoni pofika chaka cha 2030. Kukula kwakukulu kumeneku kumachitika chifukwa cha kufunikira kwabwino kwa ma phukusi apamwamba, ndipo mtengo wogulitsa wapakati ndi wokwera kwambiri poyerekeza ndi ma phukusi osakwera kwambiri, chifukwa cha kusintha kwa mtengo kuchokera ku front-end kupita ku back-end chifukwa cha nsanja za 2.5D ndi 3D.
3D stacked memory (HBM, 3DS, 3D NAND, ndi CBA DRAM) ndi gawo lofunika kwambiri, lomwe likuyembekezeka kuwerengera gawo loposa 70% la msika pofika chaka cha 2029. Mapulatifomu omwe akukula mwachangu akuphatikizapo CBA DRAM, 3D SoC, active Si interposers, 3D NAND stacks, ndi embedded Si bridges.
Zopinga zolowera mu unyolo wapamwamba woperekera ma CD zikuchulukirachulukira, ndi mafakitale akuluakulu opangira ma wafer ndi ma IDM omwe akusokoneza malo apamwamba opangira ma CD ndi luso lawo la kutsogolo. Kugwiritsa ntchito ukadaulo wophatikizana kumapangitsa kuti vutoli likhale lovuta kwambiri kwa ogulitsa a OSAT, chifukwa okhawo omwe ali ndi luso lopanga ma wafer ndi zinthu zambiri ndi omwe amatha kupirira kutayika kwakukulu kwa zokolola komanso ndalama zambiri.
Pofika chaka cha 2024, opanga ma memory omwe akuimiridwa ndi Yangtze Memory Technologies, Samsung, SK Hynix, ndi Micron adzakhala amphamvu, akusunga 54% ya msika wapamwamba kwambiri wa ma packaging, chifukwa 3D stacked memory imachita bwino kwambiri kuposa nsanja zina pankhani ya ndalama, zotuluka mu unit, ndi phindu la wafer. Ndipotu, kuchuluka kwa ma memory packaging kumaposa kwambiri kwa ma logic packaging. TSMC ikutsogolera ndi gawo la msika la 35%, kutsatiridwa ndi Yangtze Memory Technologies ndi 20% ya msika wonse. Oyamba kumene monga Kioxia, Micron, SK Hynix, ndi Samsung akuyembekezeka kulowa mumsika wa 3D NAND mwachangu, kutenga gawo la msika. Samsung ili pa nambala 3 ndi gawo la 16%, kutsatiridwa ndi SK Hynix (13%) ndi Micron (5%). Pamene 3D stacked memory ikupitilizabe kusintha ndipo zinthu zatsopano zikuyambitsidwa, magawo amsika a opanga awa akuyembekezeka kukula bwino. Intel ikutsatira kwambiri ndi gawo la 6%.
Opanga zinthu zapamwamba za OSAT monga Advanced Semiconductor Manufacturing (ASE), Siliconware Precision Industries (SPIL), JCET, Amkor, ndi TF akupitirizabe kutenga nawo mbali pa ntchito zomaliza zopaka ndi kuyesa. Akuyesera kupeza gawo la msika ndi njira zapamwamba zopaka pogwiritsa ntchito ultra-high-definition fan-out (UHD FO) ndi mold interposer. Chinthu china chofunikira ndi mgwirizano wawo ndi makampani otsogola oyambitsa zinthu ndi opanga zida zophatikizika (IDMs) kuti atsimikizire kutenga nawo mbali pazochitikazi.
Masiku ano, kukwaniritsidwa kwa ma phukusi apamwamba kumadalira kwambiri ukadaulo wa front-end (FE), ndipo ma hybrid bonding akuyamba kukhala njira yatsopano. BESI, kudzera mu mgwirizano wake ndi AMAT, ikuchita gawo lofunika kwambiri pa njira yatsopanoyi, popereka zida ku makampani akuluakulu monga TSMC, Intel, ndi Samsung, omwe onse akupikisana pamsika. Ogulitsa zida zina, monga ASMPT, EVG, SET, ndi Suiss MicroTech, komanso Shibaura ndi TEL, nawonso ndi zigawo zofunika kwambiri pa unyolo wopereka.
Njira yaikulu yaukadaulo pa nsanja zonse zopakira zinthu zapamwamba, mosasamala kanthu za mtundu wake, ndi kuchepetsa kufalikira kwa ma interconnect pitch—njira yogwirizana ndi ma through-silicon vias (TSVs), ma TMV, ma microbumps, komanso ma hybrid bonding, omwe omaliza apezeka ngati njira yothetsera mavuto aakulu. Kuphatikiza apo, ma viameter ndi makulidwe a wafer akuyembekezekanso kuchepa.
Kupita patsogolo kwa ukadaulo kumeneku n'kofunika kwambiri pophatikiza ma chip ndi ma chipset ovuta kwambiri kuti athandizire kukonza ndi kutumiza deta mwachangu komanso kuonetsetsa kuti kugwiritsa ntchito mphamvu zochepa komanso kutayika kwa magetsi kumachepetsa, zomwe pamapeto pake zimathandiza kuti pakhale kuphatikiza kwakukulu komanso bandwidth kwa mibadwo yamtsogolo yazinthu.
Kulumikizana kwa 3D SoC hybrid kumawoneka ngati chitsulo chofunikira kwambiri pakupanga zinthu zatsopano, chifukwa kumathandizira ma interconnect pitches ang'onoang'ono pomwe kumawonjezera malo onse a SoC. Izi zimathandiza kuthekera monga kuyika ma chipset kuchokera ku SoC die yogawidwa, motero kumalola ma integrated packaging osiyanasiyana. TSMC, yokhala ndi ukadaulo wake wa 3D Fabric, yakhala mtsogoleri mu ma 3D SoIC packaging pogwiritsa ntchito hybrid bonding. Kuphatikiza apo, kuphatikiza kwa chip-to-wafer kukuyembekezeka kuyamba ndi ma HBM4E 16-layer DRAM stacks ochepa.
Chipset ndi kuphatikiza kosiyanasiyana ndi njira ina yofunika kwambiri yomwe ikuyendetsa kugwiritsa ntchito ma HEP package, ndi zinthu zomwe zikupezeka pamsika zomwe zimagwiritsa ntchito njira iyi. Mwachitsanzo, Sapphire Rapids ya Intel imagwiritsa ntchito EMIB, Ponte Vecchio imagwiritsa ntchito Co-EMIB, ndipo Meteor Lake imagwiritsa ntchito Foveros. AMD ndi kampani ina yayikulu yomwe yagwiritsa ntchito njira iyi yaukadaulo m'zinthu zake, monga ma processor ake a Ryzen ndi EPYC a m'badwo wachitatu, komanso kapangidwe ka chipset ya 3D mu MI300.
Nvidia ikuyembekezekanso kugwiritsa ntchito kapangidwe ka chipset aka mu mndandanda wake wa Blackwell wa m'badwo wotsatira. Monga momwe ogulitsa akuluakulu monga Intel, AMD, ndi Nvidia adalengezeratu, ma phukusi ambiri okhala ndi die yogawidwa kapena yobwerezabwereza akuyembekezeka kupezeka chaka chamawa. Kuphatikiza apo, njira iyi ikuyembekezeka kugwiritsidwa ntchito mu mapulogalamu apamwamba a ADAS m'zaka zikubwerazi.
Chizolowezi chachikulu ndikuphatikiza mapulatifomu ambiri a 2.5D ndi 3D mu phukusi lomwelo, lomwe ena mumakampaniwa akulitcha kale kuti ma phukusi a 3.5D. Chifukwa chake, tikuyembekeza kuwona kubuka kwa ma phukusi omwe amaphatikiza ma chips a 3D SoC, ma interposer a 2.5D, ma silicon bridges ophatikizidwa, ndi ma optics ophatikizidwa. Mapulatifomu atsopano a 2.5D ndi 3D akubwera, zomwe zikuwonjezera zovuta za ma phukusi a HEP.
Nthawi yotumizira: Ogasiti-11-2025