Zosintha m'makampani a semiconductor zikuchulukirachulukira, ndipo kuyika kwapamwamba sikulinso kuganiza mozama. Katswiri wodziwika bwino Lu Xingzhi adati ngati njira zotsogola ndizomwe zidalipo pa nthawi ya silicon, ndiye kuti zotengera zapamwamba zikukhala malire a ufumu wotsatira waukadaulo.
Mu positi pa Facebook, Lu adanenanso kuti zaka khumi zapitazo, njira iyi sinamvetsetsedwe komanso kunyalanyazidwa. Komabe, lero, yasintha mwakachetechete kuchoka ku "Plan B" yomwe siinayimba" kukhala "njira yodziwika bwino ya Plan A."
Kutuluka kwa zolongedza zapamwamba ngati linga la malire a ufumu wotsatira waukadaulo sizinangochitika mwangozi; ndi zotsatira zosapeŵeka za mphamvu zitatu zoyendetsa.
Mphamvu yoyamba yoyendetsa ndi kukula kwamphamvu kwa mphamvu zamakompyuta, koma kupita patsogolo kwazinthu kwachepa. Ma chips ayenera kudulidwa, kusanjidwa, ndi kusinthidwanso. Lu adati chifukwa choti mutha kukwaniritsa 5nm sizitanthauza kuti mutha kukwanira ka 20 mphamvu yamakompyuta. Malire a ma photomasks amalepheretsa malo a tchipisi, ndipo ma Chiplets okha ndi omwe angadutse chotchinga ichi, monga tawonera ndi Nvidia's Blackwell.
Yachiwiri mphamvu yoyendetsera ndi ntchito zosiyanasiyana; tchipisi salinso chimodzi chokha. Mapangidwe adongosolo akupita ku modularization. Lu adazindikira kuti nthawi ya chipangizo chimodzi chogwira ntchito zonse yatha. Kuphunzitsidwa kwa AI, kupanga zisankho modziyimira pawokha, makompyuta am'mphepete, zida za AR - ntchito iliyonse imafunikira kuphatikiza kosiyanasiyana kwa silicon. Kupaka kwapamwamba kophatikizana ndi Chiplets kumapereka yankho loyenera pakusinthika komanso kuchita bwino.
Mphamvu yachitatu ndi kukwera mtengo kwa zotengera za data, ndipo kugwiritsa ntchito mphamvu kumakhala vuto lalikulu. Mu tchipisi ta AI, mphamvu zomwe zimagwiritsidwa ntchito potumiza deta nthawi zambiri zimaposa zowerengera. Mtunda wamapaketi achikhalidwe wakhala chopunthwitsa pakuchita bwino. Kuyika kwapamwamba kumalembanso mfundo iyi: kubweretsa deta pafupi kumapangitsa kuti mupite patsogolo.
Kupaka Kwapamwamba: Kukula Modabwitsa
Malinga ndi lipoti lomwe lidatulutsidwa ndi alangizi a Yole Gulu mu Julayi chaka chatha, motsogozedwa ndi zomwe zikuchitika mu HPC ndi generative AI, makampani opanga ma CD akuyembekezeka kukwaniritsa kukula kwapachaka (CAGR) kwa 12.9% pazaka zisanu ndi chimodzi zikubwerazi. Mwachindunji, ndalama zonse zamakampani zikuyembekezeka kukula kuchokera pa $39.2 biliyoni mu 2023 kufika $81.1 biliyoni pofika 2029 (pafupifupi 589.73 biliyoni RMB).
Zimphona zazikulu zamafakitale, kuphatikiza TSMC, Intel, Samsung, ASE, Amkor, ndi JCET, zikuyika ndalama zambiri pakuyika kwapamwamba kwambiri, ndikuyika ndalama pafupifupi $11.5 biliyoni m'mabizinesi awo apamwamba mu 2024.
Kuchuluka kwa luntha lochita kupanga mosakayikira kumabweretsa chilimbikitso chatsopano pamakampani onyamula katundu. Kukula kwaukadaulo wamapaketi apamwamba kungathandizenso kukula kwa magawo osiyanasiyana, kuphatikiza zamagetsi ogula, makompyuta ochita bwino kwambiri, kusungirako deta, zamagetsi zamagalimoto, ndi kulumikizana.
Malinga ndi ziwerengero za kampaniyi, ndalama zomwe zidachokera kuzinthu zotsogola m'gawo loyamba la 2024 zidafika $ 10.2 biliyoni (pafupifupi 74.17 biliyoni RMB), kuwonetsa kutsika kwa 8.1% kotala kotala, makamaka chifukwa cha nyengo. Komabe, chiwerengerochi chikadali chachikulu kuposa nthawi yomweyi mu 2023. Mu gawo lachiwiri la 2024, ndalama zowonjezera zowonjezera zikuyembekezeka kubwereranso ndi 4.6%, kufika $ 10.7 biliyoni (pafupifupi 77.81 biliyoni RMB).
Ngakhale kufunikira kwapang'onopang'ono kwapang'onopang'ono sikuli bwino kwenikweni, chaka chino chikuyembekezekabe kukhala chaka chothandizira makampani opanga ma CD apamwamba, ndi machitidwe amphamvu omwe akuyembekezeka mu theka lachiwiri la chaka. Pankhani ya ndalama zazikulu, omwe adatenga nawo gawo pazambiri zonyamula katundu adayika pafupifupi $9.9 biliyoni (pafupifupi 71.99 biliyoni RMB) m'derali mu 2023, kuchepa kwa 21% poyerekeza ndi 2022.
Nthawi yotumiza: Jun-09-2025